The Future of Church

In the last few days, a survey revealing the diminished numbers of Christians has prompted a lot of discussion and speculation about the future of Christianity, and how churches should change and/or have changed to face the coming years and decades. Just a few of the facts, and my immediate reaction:

- The percentage of Americans claiming no religion jumped from 8.2% in 1990 to 15% in 2008.
- People claiming 'None' religion are the only group to have grown in every state of the Union.
- 76% of people identify themselves as Christians in America, down from 86.2% in the 1990s.

I see the direction of these numbers as positive, but still largely inflated by cultural Christian-ism, to borrow Andrew Sullivan's term from his article in Time a few years ago. In my humble opinion, Cultural Christianism has been co-opted by many a political and religious wolf in sheep's clothing, so the faster that cultural and non-practicing affiliation with the Christianity shrinks, the better off everyone is. Or to put it another way, I see no way that these numbers reflect spiritual reality.

If these trends continue, however, there is no doubt that society, culture, and the nature of churches will change dramatically. The Christian Science Monitor provides predictions on a possible evangelical collapse:

Within two generations, evangelicalism will be a house deserted of half its occupants. (Between 25 and 35 percent of Americans today are Evangelicals.) In the "Protestant" 20th century, Evangelicals flourished. But they will soon be living in a very secular and religiously antagonistic 21st century.

This collapse will herald the arrival of an anti-Christian chapter of the post-Christian West. Intolerance of Christianity will rise to levels many of us have not believed possible in our lifetimes, and public policy will become hostile toward evangelical Christianity, seeing it as the opponent of the common good.

Millions of Evangelicals will quit. Thousands of ministries will end. Christian media will be reduced, if not eliminated. Many Christian schools will go into rapid decline. I'm convinced the grace and mission of God will reach to the ends of the earth. But the end of evangelicalism as we know it is close.

Back to the ARIS survey:

Most of the growth in the Christian population occurred among those who would identify only as "Christian," "Evangelical/Born Again," or "non-denominational Christian." The last of these, associated with the growth of megachurches, has increased from less than 200,000 in 1990 to 2.5 million in 2001 to over 8 million today. These groups grew from 5 percent of the population in 1990 to 8.5 percent in 2001 to 11.8 percent in 2008. Significantly, 38.6 percent of mainline Protestants now also identify themselves as evangelical or born again.

My experience with non-denominational churches is that they are often intellectually shallow, emotionally driven, and unchallenging in terms of accountability or commitment. If my anecdotal evidence is consistence with truth, then is the following prediction a good thing?

Expect evangelicalism to look more like the pragmatic, therapeutic, church-growth oriented megachurches that have defined success. Emphasis will shift from doctrine to relevance, motivation, and personal success – resulting in churches further compromised and weakened in their ability to pass on the faith.

It seems that all churches are searching for an identity, and turning to labels I don't fully understand. The "emerging" church seems to be trying to recapture the vitality found in small communities of believers actively living their faith with humility and grace. The "missional" church is placing a priority on the social work required of those who seek to follow Christ's example. "Orthodoxy" connects believers to the centuries of followers before them through spiritual discipline, theological study, rituals and traditions. And evangelicals work to spread the saving message of a new life in Christ.

I say that the only correct path is e) all of the above. Without the modern labels, the issues are humility, grace, social work, spiritual discipline, rituals, tradition, intellectual search for truth, and salvation. These are all great old ideas straight from the scripture. But my understanding is that these were not and are not meant to compete against each other, with some being printed on banners while others are ignored. So while I have no idea what Christianity or the Church will look like in the future, I hope that it may reflect a more whole image of Jesus Christ to a world sorely in need of his love.