Children, Children, Children

And I don't necessarily mean those commenting in the previous post, although, JB and Dr. RR, please take your own meds (or better yet stop taking them altogether and let's set-up a jello-fight cage match. First one that depants the other wins, and I will post the video to the blog).

First, congratulations in order to Mr. and Mrs. Anon, proud parents to a brand new healthy and beautiful girl. Best wishes and prayers for the days, months, years ahead!

Second, I would like to make clear that while I am talking about a theoretical and currently undetermined point, the plan is to one day join Anon, JB, Dr. RR, and other friends in the fraternity of fathers someday, and will look to learn a lot from them when the time comes. Keep up the good work guys!

Finally, a point was raised in the comments below about the threat of declining birth rates in "the West" that I wanted to give more attention.

Like most other large-scale phenomenon, the decline of birth rates in industrial countries is not the result of a single cause, but I did a little reading and would like to list out the main causes given:

#1 - The Sexual Revolution, Feminism, and redefining the "natural" role of Women - Per the NYT:

The main reason [for low birth rates] seems to be a basic change in attitudes on the part of some women as to their "natural" role. According to Nikolai Botev, population and development adviser at the United Nations Population Fund, many observers have been surprised to find that in recent years "childlessness emerges as an ideal lifestyle."

#2 - Tension between "liberated" women and strong family/masculine/cultural traditions. The NYT article hits on this, as does the UK's Independent:

Women get the education and even the jobs. But social attitudes remain rooted in a model of the woman as mother and the male as breadwinner, what the Australian demographer Peter McDonald, calls "out hunting the mammoth". But those Italian women who go out hunting the mammoth are still expected to change all the nappies; they do more than 75 per cent of the housework and child care.

#3 - Economics & Religion - Perhaps they should be listed separately, but an opinion piece from the American Spectator posits a strong link between the two:

I believe that two interacting factors shape population growth or decline: economic prosperity and belief in God. As to the first, there is no doubt that rising material prosperity discourages additional children. Fewer infants die; large families are no longer needed to support older parents. The welfare state-which only rich countries can afford-has greatly compounded this effect. When people believe that the government will take care of them, pay their pensions and treat their maladies, children do seem less essential.

A rise in prosperity also encourages people to think that they can dispense with God. Religion diminishes when wealth increases-that's my theory. But with a twist that I shall come to. Wealth generates independence, including independence from God, or (if you will) Providence. God is gradually forgotten, then assumed not to exist. This will tend to drive childbearing down even further. Hedonism will become predominant. Remember, Jesus warned that it's the rich, not the poor, who are at spiritual hazard.

There are qualifications and rebuttals that perhaps should be made to the above editorial, but Wikipedia offers a couple of interesting graphs:



and

Church service attendance and number of offspring
according to the World Value Survey 1981-2004

Church service attendance Number of offspring
never 1.67
only on holidays 1.78
once per month 2.01
once per week 2.23
more frequently 2.50

The U.S. is an anomaly as an industrialized country with a birthrate right at the critical 2.1 child per woman that is required for population stability, or replacement. However, if you factor out Hispanic immigrants, of which over 50% will become pregnant before they turn 20, the fertility rate for the U.S. drops significantly to 1.6. Still, 1.6 remains high compared to Europe, and economically the credit has been given to our flexible (or if you read the NYT, ungenerous and insecure) job market. Wait a minute, a free market can be a good thing?!?!

In some countries, principally Scandinavian Europe, an opposite approach is being taken, with even more increased efforts to provide a cradle to grave welfare state. This approach does seem to be lifting the birthrate slightly, although still not to replacement levels, but an unanswered question remains - Is it sustainable?

Economically, a lot of dire predictions look likely should governments continue to increase social programs, especially to adults and the elderly, while at the same time collecting fewer funds from dwindling numbers in younger generations. The only financial solutions become ever higher tax rates and loose immigration policies with the sole purpose of increasing the tax rolls. However, these are very divisive political and cultural courses of action, and perhaps catastrophically short-sighted.

Will the West become simply a geographic designation in the near future, an obsoleted culture full of bankrupted governments, lower standards or living, and dominated by procreating immigrants from underdeveloped and Muslim countries? There are certainly those warning and hoping so, but only time will tell.

So thanks again to those of you doing your part in having children, you may be helping to save Western civilization.